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A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."