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A mere eight weeks prior that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as his coach admonished him for not reading a pass in behind. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause of the team's wider issues.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. As the in-form star swept in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their opening six fixtures, are somehow just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Challengers?

It remains a rather hard question to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.

Per the data, twice all season have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – however currently the margins are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with two precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it happened in London, and once more when facing United.

The initial strike came from a superb shot, bent just inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Can It Last?

Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.

Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent they will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, surely, will not continue to drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still return to peak condition.

• The centre-forward could start scoring again.
• The winger could transform into the player he resembled in Germany.
• The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky backline.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential England player.

The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the hero positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.